2022

Ceri Shepherd

12/6/2021 1 min read

I really do not like making market forecasts, so here i am just making some observations.


1 Do not like the current stockmarket valuations, which are well into bubble blow off territory, particularly the NASDAQ which tends to be a leader index. 


2 Inflation is increasing, and i do not see how the Central Banks who have largely created this mess can temper inflation. Volcker had to raise rates to 15% to stop the inflation of the 1970,s, doing that today? 


3 COVID is still with us and making regular comebacks with the various variants, leading to a very stop/start global economy and damaged supply chains. 


4 Europe and Asia currently have a severe Natural Gas supply problem, leading to very high prices for Natural Gas & Electricity.


5 Geopolitical tensions are high particularly Russia/Ukraine, China/Taiwan, but also North/South Korea and always the Middle East particularly Iran.


S&P 500 Earnings growth has been spectacular, but S&P 500 price rises have been even more spectacular. The problem is that trying to forecast market direction in 2022 is virtually impossible as that depends on how much the major Central Banks of the world print. They are now tapering? They are now cutting back?. Yes, but all of that will be immediately thrown out the window, if the market throws a major tantrum.They have blown this huge bubble, and they are stuck with it. 


We feel that without Central Bank interference because lets face it, that is exactly what it is, interference into a supposedly free market, by EASING the QUANTITY of money, also called counterfeiting. The markets would roll over and fall sharply into a new Bear market. With Central Bank interference, the only thing keeping these markets afloat, who knows?

 

Our system has no opinion or viewpoint it simply gives us a signal, either to stay in the S&P 500 or get out and move to cash, at present we are told to stay in the S&P 500 and that is what we will do.


We simply invest in what we are given.     

ceri@trendinvestor.co.uk
01329 738 738